O Mercado de celulose e papel no Brasil: competitividade, comportamento dos preços e o efeito de políticas públicas

Abstract

In the Brazilian forestry sector, the pulp and paper segment has stood out as one of the most successful in the economy. The country has been prominent in its production and export, occupying the fourth position in the world ranking of pulp production. This increase in production and its large participation in the export agenda has increased the intensification of foreign trade operations and expanded the conquest of new markets. The pulp and paper segment has another important factor, which is its contribution to the environment, regulating the global climate, protecting biodiversity and ecosystems, conserving water resources and reducing the impact on native forests through planted forests and The level of illegal deforestation. Although this segment is competitive, its expansion can not be guaranteed in the future, since the sector depends on investments and adequate public policies. For this reason, this work analyzed the competitiveness and prices of pulp and paper in Brazil, focusing on the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, using models for the evaluation of public policies and competitiveness and econometrics, such as: matrix of political analysis (MAP), unit root test, regression, Johansen cointegration, Granger and Box causality, and Jenkins for price prediction. This study is of great importance for the expansion of the segment and for gains in competitiveness, since they provide production planning, subsidies for the formulation of public policies and forecasting prices. Secondary data were used from January 2010 to October 2016. In general terms, it was possible to conclude that there is an economic efficiency of pulp production, encouraging companies to produce, although pulp production in Brazil is suffering from Implementation of distorted public policies, it is still competitive and profitable. In the analysis of the integration of the prices of the pulp of Mato Grosso do Sul, it was concluded that the prices of the state are cointegrated, influenced and caused by other states, with the state of São Paulo showing more significant results, showing that there is a greater link Between these two states. It was stated that it is feasible to use models for forecasting the prices of pulp in Mato Grosso do Sul in the period from 2010 to 2015. This forecast was made using ARIMA and SARIMA models and through these same models prices were forecast Futures prices for the state of Mato Grosso do Sul. In the future prices, there was a trend of stability of pulp prices in the state, that is, prices tend to remain high in 2017. For paper prices, The result showed a downward trend in prices in 2017, this may justify the preference of producers to produce more pulp rather than produce paper. Even with paper having added value, pulp production is still more significant for producers.