Efeitos da temperatura sobre a soja e milho no Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul

Abstract

The influence of climate on agriculture has been constantly discussed in the academic setting. In this context, the results presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report show that the most affected sector is agriculture. Brazil has an important role in this scenario, as major world agricultural producer. Thus, studies and research focused on this topic and which may help reduce the climate impacts of Brazilian agriculture are becoming increasingly important and recurring. Given the importance of climate, this work aims to determine the effects of minimum temperature on productivity of corn and soybean crops in the municipalities of Campo Grande, Chapadão do Sul, Dourados, Maracaju and São Gabriel do Oeste in the state of Mato Grosso South in the period 2008 to 2014. It was observed that there is great variability in temperature in Dourados, Maracaju and São Gabriel do Oeste, while in Campo Grande, Chapadão do Sul temperatures have lower amplitude. This has direct implications on the production of corn and soybeans. For soybeans losses primarily occur at harvest time, but for the winter maize losses can occur both in the plant's development period as on the harvest. To corroborate these results we used the Poisson Distribution to measure whether any changes of adverse temperatures in the period. From the results it can be seen the occurrence of adverse temperatures between 2008-2014 imposing risks to these cultures.