A Elevada taxa de juros brasileira: lições a partir de uma análise de dados em painel

Abstract

This work aims to identify the main factors and variables responsible for the high Brazilian interest rate is one of the highest in the world. We will briefly review of the theories interest rate according to major schools of economic thought, as well as an analysis of the Brazilian case, relating inflation and interest rates. Data were collected from the World Bank sites, IMF, and Macrodados, for Brazil and other countries such as Japan, United States, South Korea, South Africa, Canada, Chile, Mexico and China. We evaluate the relationship between the variables, demonstrating their mutual influence. Results show that, in Brazil, the high inflation rates are largely responsible for the high rate of interest but, other variables such as sovereign risk and the public sector debt, also contribute to keeping interest rates at very high levels. One can predict that it will be very difficult to change the current scenario in the short term. A number of changes in economic policies will be needed, such as the primary surplus, lower inflation and increased per capita income for better results in the future.