http://repositorio.ufgd.edu.br/jspui/handle/prefix/5829 2026-09-02T08:55:19Z 2026-09-02T08:55:19Z Rocha , Gisele Alves Soares http://repositorio.ufgd.edu.br/jspui/handle/prefix/6942 2026-08-21T05:35:22Z 2026-07-10T00:00:00Z

Título: Insegurança alimentar e seus determinantes em países de blocos econômicos e acordos preferenciais de comércio Autor(es): Rocha , Gisele Alves Soares Primeiro Orientador: Noriller , Rafael Martins Abstract: The objective of this thesis was to analyze Food Insecurity (FI) from a comparative perspective between countries, focusing on identifying structural factors capable of explaining its differences over time and between distinct national realities. It starts from the understanding that FI results from the interaction between economic, productive, social, institutional, and environmental factors, which manifest themselves unequally among countries. In terms of material and methods, the thesis was developed from three complementary articles. Article 1 conducted a literature review on the main concepts and methods for measuring FI. Article 2 constructed a multidimensional indicator of FI for comparison between countries within economic blocs and preferential trade agreements, based on descriptive statistics, internal consistency analysis, and Principal Component Analysis with VARIMAX rotation. Article 3 analyzed the exogenous factors associated with FI in 25 countries, from 2016 to 2022, using a panel data model. The results indicated, in Article 1, that food insecurity (FI) is a multidimensional phenomenon and that its measurement requires the consideration of different analytical dimensions, while in Article 2, the findings showed the robustness of the constructed indicator and its suitability for comparison between countries. In Article 3, the results showed that exogenous socioeconomic, productive, institutional, and environmental factors are associated with variations in the phenomenon among the countries analyzed. Finally, the thesis contributes by articulating a critical literature review, the construction of a multidimensional indicator, and comparative econometric analysis within the same research agenda. The study broadens the understanding of the determinants of FI and offers support for more consistent diagnoses and for the formulation of international cooperation strategies more sensitive to structural inequalities. Editor: Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados Tipo: Tese

2026-07-10T00:00:00Z Nicacia Monteiro de, Nicacia Monteiro de http://repositorio.ufgd.edu.br/jspui/handle/prefix/6910 2026-08-19T05:13:24Z 2024-03-12T00:00:00Z

Título: Abordagens de aprendizado de máquina para previsão de indicadores na bovinocultura de corte: auxílio em tomada antecipada de decisões Autor(es): Nicacia Monteiro de, Nicacia Monteiro de Primeiro Orientador: Silva, Luciana Ferreira da Abstract: The beef cattle industry is great of the activities with the greatest participation in animal protein. It's common, that the conventional model adopted in this livestock sector is divided into creates, recreates, and next, termination or herd reform. From one phase to another, bovines can be discarded or directed to an appropriate handling for their final destination. This decision is usually based on the interaction between the bovine's maintenance cost and its performance for growth, reproductive capacity, and meat cut or composition as an indication of its carcass yield. The adoption of new prediction technologies in beef cattle farming can help rural producers obtain better results in productive and economic terms, in addition to increasing the transfer and dissemination of technology in the livestock sector, through the development and integration of machine learning (ML). Thus, the aim was to present a proposal for a methodology using ML to support decisions in beef cattle production. The first part of the thesis describes, through a bibliographic review, the perspective of the use of ML in livestock. In the second part, it was proposed that using ML techniques can solve the issue of predicting animal performance pallowrely, allowing premature animal disposal. Thus, six different ML methods were compared (Linear Discriminant Analysis, Naïve Bayes, Tree Decision Classification and Regression, Support Vector Machines, Random Forest, and Neural Network) to identify the most accurate method to predict at 210 days the animals prone to discard at 450 days based on phenotypic indicators. A binary target trait (0/1) was created to represent animal disposal premature (1), using 3 phenotypic composite indices (PCI) created from the combination of growth characteristics, Kleiber index, scrotal perimeter, and carcass ultrasound. Animals with PCI equal to or less than 20% were considered prone to disposal prematurely. The accuracies of all methods were above 70%. According to different metrics, Neural Network and Random Forest methods performed best in prediction. In this sense, ML algorithms present themselves as a promising tool to improve farmers' decision-making. ML analysis would improve culling or redirection methods of handling an animal identified prematurely based on its performance at 15 months. The third part addresses a predictive data analysis to classify groups of cattle according to phenotypic performance (growth, reproductive, Kleiber index (IK), ultrasound, and economic indicators) in animals 10% inferior, intermediate group, and animals 10% superiors applying tree classification and regression, and multivariate analysis. The root mean squared error of the forecast was satisfactory, with a maximum of 5.42 and a minimum of 0.06. The values estimated by the forecast also showed satisfactory normality for the indicators. The groups created via machine learning corroborated the expected performance when analyzing their real data. Based on the minimum spanning tree, up to 450 days, the intermediate group was closer to the lower group by 10%, indicating that it is possible at that age to more accurately identify the higher animals. When ultrasonography is included (termination phase), the intermediate group is closer to the upper 10% group, that is, more facial to discriminate the lower group. Therefore, this methodology is promising to identify and differentiate in advance the performance of the animals, which can allow the cattle rancher to plan his management strategies. Editor: Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados Tipo: Tese

2024-03-12T00:00:00Z Falcette, Artur Henrique Leite http://repositorio.ufgd.edu.br/jspui/handle/prefix/6838 2026-05-09T05:11:53Z 2026-02-27T00:00:00Z

Título: Pagamentos por serviços ambientais: experiências internacionais e o desenvolvimento de programas no Pantanal de Mato Grosso do Sul Autor(es): Falcette, Artur Henrique Leite Primeiro Orientador: Borges, João Augusto Rossi Abstract: In a context of increasing environmental pressures and the search for instruments capable of reconciling conservation and development, Payments for Environmental Services (PES) have been gaining prominence in public policies worldwide. Given the high ecological relevance of the Pantanal and the socio-environmental challenges faced by this biome, PES programs have been proposed in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) as a strategy to promote the conservation of native vegetation and to address wildfires. This thesis has two objectives: to systematically review the international scientific literature on Payments for Environmental Services in order to identify, classify, and systematize how empirical studies have characterized the design and implementation attributes of these programs, as well as the types of measurable outcomes that have been evaluated; and; to analyze the development of PES programs in the Pantanal of MS, with a focus on native vegetation additionality and on wildfire prevention and suppression. To achieve these objectives, two complementary methodological approaches were employed. In Chapter 2, the PRISMA protocol was applied to conduct a systematic review of international empirical studies. In Chapter 3, the concept of “management situation” was adopted through a qualitative and interpretative approach to analyze how PES programs in the Pantanal were built in a participatory manner, based on institutional, technical, and political processes. The results of the systematic review, based on 17 empirical studies conducted in 11 countries, show that the international PES literature remains strongly oriented toward the measurement of environmental impacts, which are reported as positive in most cases. However, the review reveals recurrent gaps in the explicit consideration of central design and implementation attributes. Spatial targeting, payment differentiation, mitigation of adverse selection, financial sustainability, persistence of effects, leakage risks, behavioral effects (crowding in/out), and equity appear irregularly and, in most studies, are not even mentioned. These findings indicate that although PES have become a consolidated empirical object of evaluation, the accumulated knowledge remains fragmented regarding the institutional and operational conditions that structure their effectiveness. The analysis of the Pantanal case shows that these attributes do not emerge as previously given technical properties, but as contingent outcomes of institutional construction processes. The development of the PES Conservation and PES Brigades programs revealed a management situation marked by uncertainty, interinstitutional negotiations, interpretative conflicts, and political costs, in which territorial prioritization devices, eligibility criteria, governance mechanisms, and operational arrangements were progressively constructed. The creation of the Environmental Services Index and the territorial multicriteria model illustrates how principles widely discussed in the literature, such as additionality, targeting, and conditionality, had to be translated into technical and normative instruments in order to become politically and administratively viable. By articulating international evidence with a concrete empirical experience, this thesis suggests that the effectiveness of PES depends less on the formal existence of payments and more on the institutional capacity to build, sustain, and adapt governance arrangements that make these instruments environmentally, socially, and politically operational. In doing so, it contributes to theoretical advancement by integrating impact evaluation and process analysis, and to the practical improvement of PES in productive and environmentally sensitive territories such as the Pantanal. Editor: Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados Tipo: Tese

2026-02-27T00:00:00Z Silva, Juliano Rosa da http://repositorio.ufgd.edu.br/jspui/handle/prefix/6825 2026-04-01T05:14:02Z 2026-03-17T00:00:00Z

Título: Entendendo a migração de jovens rurais: uma investigação a partir de fatores e benefícios psicossociais Autor(es): Silva, Juliano Rosa da Primeiro Orientador: Mauad, Juliana Rosa Carrijo Abstract: The migration of rural youth to urban areas remains a global phenomenon that imposes decisive challenges to sustainable agriculture, food security, and the continuity of family farming. By reducing the availability of labor and weakening the intergenerational transmission of agricultural knowledge, this movement contributes to farm abandonment and compromises the biodiversity associated with family-based production systems. In Brazil, rural youth face limited access to economic, educational, and institutional opportunities, which reduces their motivation to remain in their communities of origin and reinforces a cycle that affects both rural and urban environments, particularly through the loss of traditional skills and the pressure placed on urban infrastructure. This research aims to identify the psychosocial factors and psychological benefits that influence the intention of rural youth to migrate to urban areas. The study is structured into two complementary chapters. The first applies structural equation modeling to examine how experiential attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and self-identity shape migration intentions. The second chapter adopts a qualitative approach to investigate the psychological benefits perceived by young people in their community, seeking to understand how emotional bonds, memories, belonging, and place attachment contribute to identity formation and shape decisions to stay or migrate. The combination of these approaches advances the understanding of the dynamics underlying youth migration in Brazilian rural contexts, particularly within agrarian reform settlements, and highlights the relevance of affective ties and identity-related elements in shaping decisions to remain in rural areas. Editor: Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados Tipo: Tese

2026-03-17T00:00:00Z