A Vulnerabilidade da cafeicultura: uma análise da rentabilidade econômica

Abstract

Given the economic importance of coffee to Brazil, it is important for the coffee producer to be able to carry out its production in a financially profitable way. Based on this premise, a coffee property in the state of Espírito Santo was used as a proxy to verify how economic profitability could be affected by four variables: Brazilian coffee price, international coffee prices, oil price and exchange rate . In this direction, this dissertation seeks to evaluate under what market conditions coffee production can become economically viable. The economic feasibility was measured by the conventional techniques, namely the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and the Net Present Value (NPV), in addition to other economic techniques. From a baseline scenario, where the calculations of demand elasticities of each variable were considered, using Granger causality tests and Johansen cointegration tests, as well as Cholesky's impulse response function, it was possible to verify which variables were significant to find the economic feasibility of coffee growing in Espírito Santo. By means of the sensitivities they applied shocks to the variants simulating different alternative scenarios that allowed to evaluate under which conditions the coffee production generated or not economic return to the producer. He observed through the elasticities of variables that the international price of coffee does not affect the price of domestic coffee. And in almost 70% of the simulated scenarios they present positive economic viability.