Ensaios sobre políticas climáticas e o uso da terra no Brasil

Abstract

This work had as activities of analysis of demobilization and degradation policies (REDD) and the Forest Code (CF), as the main Brazilian policies on land use and forest change, focusing on the reduction of domestic proteins of Effect gases Greenhouse (GHG) and its influence on agricultural activity. For this, this dissertation is divided in two independent tests. In the first, a qualitative analysis was carried out of the implementation and results of the ABC Plan and the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) mechanism. The ABC Plan had, until April 2018, a profit of R $ 25.67 billion and REDD, with US $ 1.13 billion. Even if resources are available for REDD. However, the bureaucratic and cultural barriers that are hampering an efficient allocation of resources, REDD have already been issued at 4.30 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e.). The ABC Plan can reduce sales by up to 50.89 million tCO2e. In the second trial, a general exercise model was used, the deadline for assessing the risks and effects of legal imposition, expressed in the Forest Code, is necessary to recover and maintain a native vegetation index (NPV) in real estate. For Legal Reserve (RL), in two Brazilian biomes, the Amazon and the Cerrado. In Amazonia, a deficit of 4.47 Mha of NPV and in the Cerrado of 5.03 Mha was identified. In both cases, for an environmental assessment, it will be necessary to abandon production areas for conversion into NPV. The simulation indicators indicate that the application of the word negatively affects as major Brazilian macroeconomic variables, as well as the reduction of agricultural production in the states that host the Cerrado and Amazon biomes, in addition to other activities related to the agribusiness sector. It would also lead to the migration of the labor force from the states affected by the policy to the other regions of the country that have not agribusiness their main productive sector. The recovery of NPV in the Amazon biome can be reduced to 3.1 million tCO2e. and no Cerrado biome at 7.67 thousand tCO2e. As grazing areas such as those that are most important for the recovery of NPV, mainly in the Amazon biome. Finally, it should be noted that policy compliance, a long term, does not matter the impacts on the Brazilian economy as a whole, since it compromises less than 1% of the country's GDP.