Curvas de custos marginais de abatimento de gases de efeito estufa: oportunidades de mitigação para pecuária de corte

Abstract

Brazil has many reasons to be appointed as a key country for global reductions in greenhouse gases. The country's 4th largest emitter, accounting for 4.63% of global emissions, but is also one of the five countries with the greatest reduction potential. With regard to its signatory status, the country has demonstrated, through voluntary action, which is engaged in make up its commitment to reduce its emissions to the agricultural sector, which accounts for 37.09% of total emissions of CO2e from the country. Strategies are being adopted for the country to migrate to an economy with a focus on low-carbon, producing based on clean technologies, processes and methods which ensure efficiency and environmental sustainability. In the projections for the Business as Usual scenario, keeping the activity in constant trajectory, emission estimates for beef cattle in Mato Grosso do Sul until 2026 are 2Gt CO2eq. the extensive system; 1.7 in the semi-intensive system and 1,2Gt CO2eq in intensive system. In this scenario, however, with regard to investment parameters for the project, all showed positive results for the feasibility of the project. However, with the implementation of systems that integrate the arboreal component associated with more efficient systems models (intensive and semi-intensive) can be achieved negative costs and a surplus of up to 1.5t CO2e per hectare in the Low Carbon Emission Scenario I (CBEC I). The financial analysis of the project for the Crop-Livestock-Forest integration system (IAFP) and Crop-Livestock Integration (ILP) presented results of feasibility, with IRR of up to 17.43% and 14.62%, respectively. However, the IRR in Low Scenario Emission Carbon II (CBEC II) was below the minimum expected rate of attractiveness. Even when the other indexes were positive, the investment risk in these conditions proposed by the study did not ensure the viability of the project. The only system model that showed no viability in any of the scenarios analyzed was the Silvopastoral system. Despite the high mitigation potential of up to 30t CO2eq, this system features a more robust initial investment compared to other systems, and a higher risk of investment, because it is native trees. Despite the economic perspective, the silvopastoral system is an activity that has high potential for control of emissions and meets the principles of environmental and economic development. Therefore, this system model may have some readjustments to enable its implementation. Given the variety of components and spatial dispersion may be a high degree of heterogeneity between the abatement costs for the same system. So therefore, the reduction in the efficiency and value of investments may expose a dispersion in the results, varying from region system. The MAC curves denote a crucial starting point for global discussion on restricting greenhouse gas emissions, thus demonstrating a concrete base costs.