O Regime e a variabilidade das chuvas na porção centro-sul de Mato Grosso do Sul, a expansão da cana-de-açúcar e o cenário das mudanças climáticas globais

Abstract

The present work has the objective of identify possible changes on precipitation patterns of the Center-South portion of the state of Mato Grosso do Sul. The territory dynamics of this area is well known, mainly because of its sugar cane industries, and because it encloses three hydrographical basins: the Ivinhema river hydrographical basin, the Amambai river hydrographical basin and the Iguatemi river hydrographical basin, being the first one the most important and complex. Regarding to the pluviometrical distribution and its relationship with the sugar cane expansion, the area brings particularities uncovered by this thesis, with the creation of a large and complex database that covered 28 pluviometric stations, during 36 years of analysis. In addition to the database, to the cartographic products elaborated with the help of the QGis software and to the field work carried out during the process, were also used statistical methods as a regional ponderation with linear regression and the Mann-Kendall methodology to the identification of possible changes on the rainfall patterns of the region and a possible connection with the sugar cane culture. The present work demonstrated a change in the rainfall patterns in a few specific months, such as July, and mainly in the Ivinhema river hydrographical basin, where the sugar cane concentration is higher, validating the main hypothesis of this work, that is the change on the rainfall patterns in areas where there is a great alteration in the patterns of soil use and occupation.