A Segurança alimentar mundial: a resposta brasileira através da recuperação de áreas de pastagens

Abstract

Food security has been at serious risk due to intense climate change, resulting in a decline in food production. In the Cerrado Biome about 60% of pasture areas are degraded. The ABC plan is a government proposal in which it encourages the use of sustainable and economically viable policies, among the alternatives is the recovery of degraded areas, so previously underutilized lands become productive avoiding the deforestation of new areas and consequently reducing the rate of greenhouse gas emissions. In this perspective, this study aimed to identify and implement in the economic simulations the percentages of areas of degraded pastures to be recovered, according to the ABC plan, evaluating the implications of the policy of recovery of degraded pastures for land use, greenhouse gas emissions for the national and regional economy. For the analysis, a general equilibrium model, the TERM-BR was used, which was adapted for the Brazilian regions. Thus, a productivity gain shock was applied, simulating the recovery of the degraded pastures of the Cerrado Biome regions. The result obtained through the use of the policy was positive, since it presented positive results in terms of productivity gains, and also positively affecting important macroeconomic variables, the effectiveness of the policy can also be observed through data on land use, in which it presented the decrease of unused land and the increase of arable land. Finally another satisfactory result was the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, showing that the shock met the guidelines proposed by the ABC plan.