Análise dos efeitos da política monetária sob o regime de metas de inflação no crescimento econômico brasileiro entre os anos de 2009 a 2018

Abstract

This paper analyzes monetary policy transmission mechanisms by exploring the relationships between macroeconomic variables such as output, inflation and the basic interest rate in the conduct of monetary policy under the inflation targeting regime between the years 2009 and 2018 with the objective to evaluate the sensitivity of the output gap response and inflation the changes in the basic interest rate. A model of autoregressive vectors was estimated with reference to the work of Bogdanski et. al (2000) with the purpose of comparing the sensitivity of the output gap and inflation to the variations in the basic interest rate (Selic), through the impulse response functions, as well as to investigate whether this has been determinant for the convergence of interest rates. inflation at desired levels. Both the gap and the IPCA respond negatively to increases in the basic interest rate, with the IPCA being more sensitive to interest rate responses. Thus, the target regime is justified, however, by the decomposition of the variance provided by the model, there was evidence that the Selic has shown a reduction in its influence in the determination of the IPCA trajectory, which can be justified by the significant increase of the administered prices in the composition of the full IPCA index.