Previsão de demanda integrada à capacidade produtiva: uma proposta para definição de ordens de produção em uma indústria de concreto em Dourados-MS

Abstract

The objective of this article was to present alternatives to the production schedule adopted by a company in the civil construction sector, which is stagnant due to the lack of productive capacity to expand production. To do so, based on reviews in the literature on demand forecasting and productive capacity, several methods were tested to find one with low levels of errors. Thus, the Holt-Winters method presented the lowest error levels. From the historical process data provided by the company and the defined forecasting method, the mathematical nonlinear GRG modeling tool, present in the Microsoft Excel software was fed, with aim to simulate production plans for the months of July, August, and September. Finally, with the results obtained in the development of the research, it was possible to observe that there are great opportunities for improvement from the optimization of production orders.