Análise do comportamento da demanda por importações brasileiras de 2000 até 2012

Abstract

This final paper aims to analyze the influences of exchange rate and GDP changes on brazilian imports based on the movement of these variables over time in the period from 2000 to 2012, using quarterly data frequency. The chosen method was the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and it was made the correlation, descriptive analysis, unit root test and Phillips-Perron test, autocorrelation analysis and regression of datas. The main results indicate that the variables are inelastics and statistically significant and that the exchange rate has a slightly bigger influence than GDP on brazilian imports in the studied period despiting previous studies which showed that GDP was the biggest influencer of imports, followed by the exchange rate. By observing the behavior of variables in two separate periods, the first from 2000 to 2003 and the second from 2004 to 2012 it was concluded that in the first period, due 2001, brazilian imports had a falling and they were not influenced by GDP and exchange rates, but they were influenced by other variables that are not included in the model, such as expectations about the world and uncertainty about the United States. In the second period there was a rise in imports and large variation in rates due to the U.S. housing crisis in 2008 and softly oscillating in brazilian GDP, resulting in a greater influence on the exchange rate in explained variable. Although the present study has limitations, it is noted that the GDP and exchange rate are very important coefficients for imports, and given the current economic scenario of dollar exchange rate increasing which causes discouragement of imports and rising inflationary pressures. Hence the importance of monitoring the evolution of these variables to estimate the functioning of economy and its external sector.