O Método de Monte Carlo na projeção da demanda de etanol e consumo de cana de açúcar em uma usina de Dourados-MS

Abstract

In Brazil, there is a loss in the cane sugar production and the indebtedness of about 16.6% of the production unities in operation is over R$100,00 per ton. In the last 5 years, 43 plants were deactivated and of the 330 in operation, at least 10 will cease to operate in this harvest. To try to stop this crisis, the government cut the PIS/COFINS and put the credit rates down to increase the industrial production. To try to solve one of the greater problems of the alcohol sector, that is the lack of raw material that causes an oscillation on the process, this paperwork aimed to simulate the ethanol demand of a Dourados/MS's plant, and with the help from the results the company can plan the cane sugar amount to help its demand. To make these simulations, the Monte Carlo's method was used with the Microsoft Excel software.