Análise de risco na metodologia PERT/CPM aplicado na construção civil

Abstract

PERT/CPM is a methodology used in project management, allows planning, scheduling and coordination of activities essential for the control of time and cost. The Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding to an aid tool in decision-making under conditions of risk and uncertainty. This study aims to analyze the restrictions in the construction sector, such as financial budget and time. Through this analysis, the critical path has been determined, making it possible to speed up the project activities without too exceed the initial investment. The tools PERT / CPM and Monte Carlo simulation were combined allowing minimal project completion time is a random variable with a known distribution, assuming probabilistic analysis to quantify the risks to the project's completion. Applied from theoretical predictions and actual data provided by a construction company.