Determinação do ponto de equilíbrio em um supermercado em condição de risco e incerteza

Abstract

Costs and expenses are present in everyday life of a company. It is they who define whether a company generates profit or loss. With proper management of these costs you can better understand the financial situation of your company. There are different methods that assist in water management and the calculation of the break-even point with risk factor as one of them. With it you can know how much needs to rise to cover expenses and provide for a profit goal in a given period. Knowing that, this research determines the break-even point of the Supermarket Modelo based on their income, starting from the percentage calculation of the income statement contribution margin in the period studied. Then it creates a simulation model by the Monte Carlo method to analyze and evaluate different scenarios based on factors of risk and uncertainty using Microsoft Excel® software, with assist of Oracle Crystal Ball® tool. After evaluating the experiments it is necessary to validate the experienced model, comparing the values experienced with real values, and that the more the experienced approaches the real ones more valid and reliable this model becomes. The model is completely feasible and the company can use it for future decision making.