Aplicação de método de previsão de demanda e desenvolvimento de uma política de estoques em uma indústria de vidros temperados

Abstract

Demand forecast provides informations possible as companies making strategies planning your functional areas. In addition, the use of accurate methods helps the management process analysis and decision making, allowing that as companies stand out in competitive market. one of major problems associated when use demand forecasts do not support the decision making, and choice implemented forecast method be scenarios distinct, require distinct forecasting methods for what, how reliable predictions be and is in according to specific features more of each company. This has work to analyze and proportionality one method demand forecasting quantitative paragraph Time series, minimize forecast errors of class products A, which represent more than 80% of the company billing, selected through the ABC products classification. In joint analysis, developed hum inventory management system for company. A survey conducted was exploratory, bibliographical, where we proceeded to one case study for the purpose of application. Without this development work, we selected a company products category through the ABC classification was applied forecasting methods more known in the literature of an end find more accurate. The quantitative methods of time series forecast employees were a weighted Média Móvel Ponderada, Suavização Exponencial Simples, Suavização Exponencial - método de Holt, Suavização Exponencial - método de Winters multiplicativo e aditivo. The two methods chosen were: method Winters Aditivo for product F1 and method Winters Multiplicativo for product F2, as showed higher diagnostic accuracy than others. The management system of stocks chosen and the continuous review, class products A, as they allow for best end control avoid missing (stockout) of products considered critics for this company.