Análise da demanda e gestão de estoque em uma empresa de venda de bebidas da cidade de Dourados-MS.

Abstract

The lack of demand forecasting and inventory management can generate waste of financial resources, product shortages, high operating costs, loss of credibility, difficulties in decision-making and compromising competitiveness. These adverse impacts can harm the company's financial health, operational efficiency and competitive position. Considering some studies have confirmed the importance of high precision in demand forecasting and inventory management, which have a significant influence on the level of service offered by a company, this study addresses a specific analysis of demand and inventory management in a company which sells drinks in the city of Dourados, Mato Grosso do Sul. To this end, demand forecasting and inventory management tools were discussed in accordance with current literature, also demonstrating demand forecasting techniques applicable to the context of beverage sales. Furthermore, points that require improvements in inventory management were identified through theoretical analyses. Regarding the methodology adopted, a case study was carried out following the following steps: collecting 38 weeks of product sales history; time series analysis to define the quantitative forecast model; presentation of two supply models, namely: the reorder point method and the safety stock concept for inventory control. The results obtained highlighted the crucial importance of demand analysis and demonstrated that the Holt-Winters model demonstrated accurate values in the predictions, presenting an Average Absolute Deviation of 39 for product G, 54 for product E, 68 for product C, 70 for product F, 73 for product D, 141 for product A and, finally, 141 for product B. Furthermore, the relevance of inventory management using the most appropriate model, adjusted to the particularities of demand, became clear. and replacement of each product.