Desmatamento no cerrado do Centro-Oeste brasileiro: uma análise econométrica

Abstract

The Brazilian Central-West Region accounts for a significant portion of the country’s grain and animal protein production. The perspective is that the demand for agriculture and livestock in the region will continue to increase to meet the global demand for food, a factor that could contribute to greater environmental pressure due to the demand for new land and the increase in deforestation in the region. Considering that these activities extend over the Cerrado biome, which presents relevant attributes for environmental conservation, threatened by the advance of the agricultural frontier, this study aimed to analyze deforestation in the Cerrado biome in the Central-West Region. For this purpose, an econometric model was developed to estimate the effects of deforestation determinants in the Cerrado region of the Brazilian Central-West. In this sense, the study sought to: i) identify the main factors responsible for deforestation in the region; ii) estimate the effects of the identified variables on deforestation; and iii) discuss alternatives for containing and reducing deforestation in the region. The method applied was multiple regression analysis combined with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation method. The results pointed out the relevance of the variables: population density, pasture areas in the Cerrado, and aggregate crop productivity. Furthermore, the presence of the Jevons Paradox, also known as the rebound effect, was observed, as the productivity of soybean and corn crops influenced the demand for more land and, consequently, increased deforestation rates in the region, contradicting the land-saving effect.