A variabilidade das chuvas no Mato Grosso do Sul em diferentes escalas (anual, sazonal e mensal)

Abstract

This thesis aims to centrally analyze the variability of rainfall in the South Mato Grosso territory based on a historical series of pluviometric data covering the period from 1986 to 2020. This work seeks to comprehend, continue, and deepen the studies proposed by Zavattini (1990) regarding climatic regionalization in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, considering the current rainfall variability in the face of climate change. The research indicates that these variables increasingly influence the behavior of rainfall, leading to changes in rainfall patterns. Grounded in Zavattini's (1990) premises, this study adopted the classification of four regional subdivisions: S.1: Climatic Sector (Center-South), S.2: Climatic Sector (Center-East), S.3: Climatic Sector (West), and S.4: Climatic Sector (Southwest). The selection criteria were based on the need to contribute to a deeper understanding of rainfall distribution, given that the State of Mato Grosso do Sul features a transitional strip dividing its climate into sectors, distinguishing regional climates according to their morphology and pluviometry. To analyze the climatic sectors, standard years were selected to effectively assess the rainfall variability and distribution, as well as their repercussions in geographical space. The analysis of the thirty-five-year period (1986-2020) at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales provided a better understanding of rainfall, allowing the identification of both typical years and those exceptionally dry and rainy. At the end of this research, the cartographic products generated and analyses demonstrated clear evidence of rainfall variability, particularly from the 2000s onwards, revealing greater fluctuations compared to the 1980s and 1990s. According to the Box Plot method, ten exceptional years during the last decade were identified: 1997 (rainy), 1998 (rainy), 1999 (super dry), 2002 (dry), 2003 (rainy), 2007 (dry), 2009 (rainy), 2017 (rainy), 2019 (dry), and 2020 (dry). The years 2000, 2001, 2008, 2016, and 2018 were classified as typical, as they alternate or follow exceptional years and were identified with higher frequency during the historical series analysis. Furthermore, this research contributes to presenting a possible scenario for rainfall over the next 90 years (2020-2110). The results demonstrated significant trends, especially in providing information that could support future research in the field of climate change. Thus, we conclude that the objectives of this research were achieved by offering visibility and understanding to the exceptional rainfall occurrences that have intensified over the decades. It is believed that the findings may assist in formulating public policies that incorporate the nuances and existing spectrums regarding climate change, thereby enhancing climate governance across various aspects and bolstering studies in Regional Geographic Climatology.