A guerra na Ucrânia: uma leitura da teoria realista e das explicações teóricas para a guerra

Abstract

The present work seeks to analyze the events that occurred in the European continent and culminated in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with a special focus on the events that unfolded after the war began. All assumptions and the explanatory basis revolve around the (neo)realist theory of International Relations, with elementary explanations of the realist paradigm based on the offensive realist theory (MEARSHEIMER, 1994, 2001), as well as the conceptual framework of other branches constituting the paradigm and concepts brought by them (WALTZ, 1979, BATISTELLA, 2014). Given the invasion and the geopolitical shock brought not only to the old continent but to the world, the primary discussion will center on how states behave in situations of power maximization and threats to their borders, particularly land borders. The discussion will also demonstrate through images the events that preceded the war and their economic effects and the impact on the power structure of the world's main powers. With all this said, we will conclude by discussing the possible directions of the war and the ongoing relationships between states and actors in the international system, and what forces are available to the opposing sides of the conflict.