O cenário de mudanças climáticas e a variabilidade das chuvas na microrregião de Dourados - MS

Abstract

Climate change is responsible for significant changes in global temperature and precipitation patterns, influencing various ecosystems and economic sectors. Understanding the nuances of climate change involves understanding climate phenomena that act at the global and local scales, such as El Niño and La Niña, which result from variations in the temperatures of the waters of the Pacific Ocean. El Niño tends to warm the waters and change wind patterns, causing increased rainfall in some regions and droughts in others. La Niña, on the other hand, with the cooling of the waters, can cause opposite effects, reducing rainfall and intensifying droughts. These climate oscillations directly affect agriculture, especially in sensitive regions, whose spatial pattern is dominated by monocultures. The present work investigates the correlation of rainfall variability in the microregion of Dourados (MS) with the climate change picture, based on the analysis of the database between the period from 1986 to 2023. The investigation uses the Rainfall Anomaly Index (IAC) as the main method to identify deviations in precipitation patterns and understand their relationships with the regional and global climate context. The IAC allows the identification of deviations in precipitation from the historical average, being an effective approach to assess regional changes in the context of climate change. Although phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña are addressed as elements that modulate global climate variability, the emphasis of this study falls on the changes in local precipitation observed over the last decades and their correlation with global and regional climate indicators. In addition, the survey of news published in the media contributed to identifying the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of changes in rainfall regimes in local agriculture, a crucial sector for the economy of Mato Grosso do Sul.The results point to an intensification of rainfall and drought oscillations, associated with both short-term events and broader trends related to climate change. These changes have directly implicated agricultural productivity and water resources management, highlighting the importance of adaptive practices.The analysis also explores local mitigation and adaptation initiatives, including the role of the media in publicizing climate effects and raising public awareness. It is concluded that climate change not only intensifies the frequency of extreme events, but also highlights the need for regional policies aimed at the sustainability and resilience of agriculture in the face of a changing climate.