Riscos climáticos e valor de mercado das empresas do agronegócio

Abstract

This dissertation sought to analyze the relationship between climate risks and the market value of agribusiness companies. The study is divided in two articles: the first evaluates how the market value of Brazilian agribusiness companies is associated with climate risks; the second analyzes the relationship between climate risks and the market value of agribusiness companies worldwide, that is, how investors have reacted to climate risks both from the perspective of climate risk management and the exposure of companies to climate risks, divided in physical and transition. The research used the econometric model of panel data, using variables from LSEG Data & Analytics database. The first article analyzed climate risk from the perspective of climate management, through a variable that measures the efforts of companies to reduce carbon emissions. The analysis covered the period from 2019 to 2022, its results suggest that greater efforts by Brazilian companies to reduce climate risks, through their management, is negatively associated with their market value. In addition, it cannot be said that the agribusiness sector presents a different behavior from other companies in the Brazilian market. The same variable was used in the second article, in the period from 2021 to 2023, to analyze the perspective of climate risk management for agribusiness companies worldwide, the results indicate that agribusiness companies that adopt the practice of climate risk management have a reduced market value, however, when compared to other sectors it’s possible to observe an appreciation in the market, it was indicate a positive effect on the investor. For the second perspective, proxy variables present in the database were used, which indicate the exposure of companies to physical and transition risks. The main results indicate that agribusiness companies, when exposed to physical and transition risks, have lower returns on average compared to other sectors, reflecting greater sensitivity of the sector to these types of risks. For investors, this exposure may be associated with greater uncertainties in achieving returns, making the sector relatively riskier in these scenarios. The survey sough to highlight the importance of transparency in sustainability information, especially on climate risks, in the face of glowing demands from investors and international pressure for sustainable agribusiness. The work was intended to contribute with empirical evidence that is still little explored and to more sustainable practices in the agribusiness sector, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and promoting responsible and resilient production to climate change.