Transição energética: uma análise econômica do setor hidrelétrico brasileiro

Abstract

The Brazilian electricity matrix faces the paradox that the operational solution for energy security is simultaneously the main driver of cost increases and emissions. Although predominantly clean, the high dependence on hydroelectric generation, especially in the Southeast/Central-West (SE/CO) subsystem, exposes the system to severe hydric vulnerability in the face of climate change, compromising energy transition efforts. This study analyzed this relationship from 2014 to 2024, employing descriptive statistics, comparative temporal analysis, and a multiple linear regression model. The analyses found a relationship between reduced rainfall and a drop in hydroelectric generation, accompanied by increased activation of thermal power plants and a significant elevation of the Price for the Settlement of Differences (PLD), highlighting the system's sensitivity to climate variations. Conversely, periods with higher precipitation were associated with reservoir replenishment, lower thermal participation, and reduced price volatility, confirming that thermal dispatch is the primary vector for cost and GEE (Greenhouse Gas) emissions. The conclusion is that the effort to consolidate the energy transition demands structural diversification into complementary sources and the attraction of sustainable financing, aiming to integrate climate risk into long-term planning and reduce the volatility of the final energy cost for the national economy.