Análise do crédito rural em Mato Grosso do Sul entre 2017 e 2024

Abstract

This study analyzes the evolution of rural credit in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul between 2017 and 2024, aiming to understand its dynamics, purposes, and relationship with the performance of the local agribusiness. The research, of a quantitative and descriptive nature, used secondary data from the Central Bank of Brazil, IBGE, SIGA-MS, and other official sources, allowing a detailed analysis of the volume, distribution, and real variation of credit granted. The results showed that rural credit in Mato Grosso do Sul maintained a structure heavily concentrated in the financing modality, accounting for between 70% and 77% of total contracts, in contrast to the national average, which showed greater diversification towards investments from 2020 onwards. The analyzed period was marked by three distinct phases: moderate and balanced growth (2017-2020), accelerated demand expansion (2021-2023) – influenced by low interest rates, high commodity prices, and increased production costs – and a significant contraction in 2024, with a 21.73% drop in credit demand in the state. It is concluded that rural credit acted as an inducer of regional agricultural development; however, the excessive dependence on financing and the combination of factors such as crop failure, price reduction, and growing indebtedness exposed the financial vulnerability of the sector. The adoption of policies that balance financing and investment is recommended, along with risk management instruments to ensure the sustainability of the agricultural financing model in Mato Grosso do Sul.