Conectividade ecológica sob diferentes cenários ambientais na região da Serra da Bodoquena, MS

Abstract

The Bodoquena Plateau Range harbor karst ecosystems of exceptional ecological and tourist importance, currently under intense pressure from agricultural expansion. This study conducted a multitemporal land use and land cover analysis in the Formoso and Miranda River Basins (Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil), using MapBiomas Collection 10.1 data from 1985 to 2024, focusing artographically on 1985, 1994, 2004, 2014, and 2024. Three spatial scenarios were developed: Current (2024), Pessimistic (conversion of unprotected remnants), and Optimistic (restoration of Permanent Preservation Areas — APP and Legal Reserves — RL), alongside an exploratory linear trend exercise up to 2064. Potential structural ecological corridors were modeled in QGIS using the LinkScape plugin (Most Connectivity strategy, 2,500 ha allocation limit per basin). Results demonstrate cumulative native vegetation losses of 16,505.47 ha in the Formoso Basin and 29,025.23 ha in the Miranda Basin between 1985 and 2024, predominantly affecting forest formations (12,566.80 ha and 25,951.75 ha, respectively). Soybean cultivation expanded by 20,482.47 ha in the Formoso Basin, while cultivated pasture grew by 38,141.04 ha in the Miranda Basin. Spatial modeling mapped 266 structural corridors linking 465 patches (2,499.37 ha of corridors in the Formoso Basin), structuring 69,928.58 ha into contiguous habitat networks. These scenarios emphasize the urgent need for enforced compliance with the Forest Code and the Atlantic Forest Act to ensure hydrological integrity and regional landscape resilience.