Criação de valor e flexibilidade gerencial em sistemas agrícolas: desempenho da sucessão soja-milho e diversificação com amendoim

Abstract

The increasing capital intensity and high levels of uncertainty that characterize agricultural activities make the assessment of economic performance and investment decision-making on rural properties more complex. In this context, this thesis aimed to evaluate the economic performance of the soybean second-crop maize succession system on a rural property located in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, and to analyze the economic feasibility of production diversification through peanut cultivation, incorporating the value of managerial flexibility. To this end, a systematic literature review of investment analysis methodologies applied to agriculture was conducted, followed by the application of the Economic Value Added (EVA) framework to assess the economic performance of the production system and Real Options Theory (ROT) to analyze the diversification decision. The systematic literature review revealed the predominance of traditional investment analysis methods, particularly Net Present Value (NPV), despite their limitations in incorporating the uncertainty and managerial flexibility inherent in agricultural investment decisions. The application of EVA demonstrated that economic value creation by the soybean–maize succession system was unstable throughout the period analyzed, with soybean exhibiting better economic performance than maize. Under uncertain conditions, Monte Carlo simulation indicated a 73.1% probability of economic value destruction. Spearman correlation analysis identified soybean price, operating costs, and productivity as the variables most strongly associated with EVA. The analysis of production diversification showed that peanut cultivation constitutes an economically viable alternative, while the application of Real Options Theory demonstrated that incorporating managerial flexibility increases the economic value of the investment compared with traditional analysis. It is concluded that the complementary use of Economic Value Added and Real Options Theory provides a more comprehensive assessment of economic performance and investment decisions in agricultural systems subject to uncertainty.