Decisões de investimentos em estruturas de armazenagem de grãos em propriedades agrícolas: uma análise a partir das técnicas de orçamento de capital e da Teoria do Comportamento Planejado

Abstract

Ahead of a production of more than 230 million tons, Brazilian agribusiness has positive expectations; however its competitiveness is compromised by the bottlenecks of production storage, whose deficit causes losses of more than 2 million Reais a year. Nevertheless, investment in storage structure is a complex decision and involves many variables and risks, which the results and performance are too difficult to assess. In this scenario, the general objective of this study raises, which is to identify and understand the psychosocial factors, within the scope of behavioral intention, that influence the decisions of the producers to invest in a structure of grain storage in the rural property and if this decision of investment is feasible under the economic-financial aspects. In order to do so, this dissertation was structured in three chapters. In the first one, the objective was to raise the state of the art about soybean and corn storage from a systematic review, merging content analysis and bibliometric analysis, where the interest of the scientific community in understanding issues related to the development of technologies that allow to elucidate problems of contamination of the grains by pests and insect, to reduce the losses of the production, to decrease the alimentary insecurity, as much by losses as by contaminations became evident. The results show that, despite the evolution of the scientific production on this subject, there are still gaps to be filled, mainly on logistical and financial aspects related to the implementation of a grain storage structure at the property level. In Chapter 2, the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) was used to analyze the psychological factors that influence the adoption of storage structure. The results show that the farmers' intention to adopt a storage structure in their properties was influenced by the farmers' evaluation of the adoption of storage structure (attitude), their perceptions about the social pressure to adopt this behavior (subjective norm) and their perceptions about their own ability (perceived behavioral control). Seven behavioral beliefs were the drivers of attitude. Five control beliefs were the drivers of perceived behavioral control. The normative beliefs that represent the important people or groups, had no influence on the behavior of the producer. Chapter 3, aimed at validating an investment in grain storage structure in rural property in the city of Dourados, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, with a capacity of 210 thousand 60 kg bags. The study differs from the others in the way the investment risk is treated, that is, the determination of the minimum rate of attractiveness of the producer was considered the risk of the project, adjusted to the specifics of emerging economies, as is the case of the Brazil. The following valuation techniques were used: Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Equivalent Uniform Annual Value (VAUE), Discounted Playback (PD), Profitability Index (PI), Internal Rate Modified Return (TIRM), Benefit/Cost Ratio (B/C), Financial Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and sensitivity analysis. The verified results indicate the economic and financial viability of the investment with areas from 1,100ha at a distance of 120 km from the place of grain delivery.