Moneyball: uma possível solução para a situação financeira dos clubes brasileiros?

Abstract

This study addresses the use of Moneyball as a possible solution to reduce transfer expenditures, potentially alleviating the financial situation of Brazilian football clubs. The objective is to un derstand the financial condition of the clubs, analyze their performance in the transfer market, and assess whether the application of Moneyball principles can identify players with similar sporting performance at a lower market value. The research uses secondary data from websites such as Transfermarkt, Sofascore, and Zerozero, as well as the annual financial reports released by the clubs. Financial indicators and econometric methods were applied to analyze the transfer market for both clubs and players, in addition to the matching of signed and unsigned athletes. The results indicated that most Brazilian clubs are indebted and financially weakened. A large portion of total revenue and debt is concentrated in a small number of clubs in both cases. In the transfer market, Brazilian clubs broke the record for total spending in 2024, and a positive relationship was found between performance in the national league, spending on transfers, and the average performance of the players signed. The application of Moneyball concepts succeeded in identifying players with superior performance compared to those signed in 2024; however, there was no statistical evidence of a difference between the market values of the signed and unsigned athletes. It is concluded that, with some exceptions, Brazilian clubs need to improve their financial management, and that Moneyball principles can help identify players with better sporting performance, enabling clubs to increase their efficiency in the market, reduce the number of signings over the years, and increase their revenues through the potential sale of these athletes.