Uma Análise da sustentabilidade do atual sistema previdenciário brasileiro

Abstract

The Brazilian demographic structure has rapidly changed over the last decades. Among these changes, there is a significant increase in the number of elderly people, aged over 60 years, due to the improvements on the life conditions observed in the same period of time. These changes made Social Security expenses (Previdência Social), such as pensions, to considerably increase, and projections are that these benefits will largely increase in the following years, due to the increase on the rate of survival. This study aimed to analyze the Brazilian social security and the effects of changes in demographic structure on it. For this purpose, we simulated the current regime (pay-as-you-go) actuarial balance, comparing it to a fully-funded (current proposal under discussion) regime. It was observed that the fully-funded regime held a far lower deficit, which turns out to be important considering the ongoing demographic changes. The increase in the number of retired people, and the decrease in the economically active population, will lead to severe imbalances under the current pas-as-yougo regime. However, a large fiscal effort will be required to build a fully funded regime.